The path to 51%
How We Win
On paper, Texas's new 6th District looks safely Republican. Seven converging factors say otherwise.
The Math
On paper, Texas's new 6th District looks safely Republican. In a straight re-run of 2024 under the new lines, Trump and Cruz both carry it comfortably.
But seven converging factors — some structural, some environmental, some specific to this candidate and this cycle — give Danny Minton a realistic path to 51%. None are decisive alone. Together, they describe a district and a moment where the range of plausible outcomes is wider than the baseline number suggests.
Danny is on track to build the coalition of voters that delivers a victory in November.
Seven Factors
Each factor adds to the running total, starting from the baseline.
The seven factors and their weights are the campaign's own analysis of the 2026 race, September 2026. The district's competitiveness is corroborated independently below.
- Deep Root Analytics memo on the 2026 Texas Senate race and congressional districts (via The Texas Tribune, February 2026)
A Republican firm's projection, circulated while Ken Paxton and John Cornyn were competing for the Senate nomination. With Paxton at the top of the ticket — he is the nominee — it puts Jake Ellzey's District 6 margin at +3, down from +10 on the generic ballot: a 7-point drag, the largest of the districts it lists.
Politics First vs. People First
Where Danny Minton and the incumbent stand, issue by issue.
Jake Ellzey
U.S. Representative
Career Politician: Washington insider, putting politics ahead of people.
Danny Minton
Democrat for Congress
North Texas neighbor, focused on people, not politics.
Putting People First
Votes with the extreme agenda in Washington more than 90% of the time.
An independent problem solver who will work across the aisle to deliver real results for North Texas.
Data Centers
Supports billionaires in their attempts to place data centers where they want, without community input or regulation.
Supports strict laws, regulations and zero tax abatements on data centers so they cannot run roughshod over the communities they are trying to exploit. Supports an AI dividend for those affected by the data centers.
Lower Costs & Strong Economy
Supports policies that favor big corporations over working families.
Will fight to lower costs, support small businesses and raise wages so families will get ahead.
Health Care
Voted to repeal the Affordable Care Act multiple times, risking coverage for millions with pre-existing conditions.
Will fight to expand Medicare and Medicaid, and protect rural hospitals. Believes that healthcare is a right and not a luxury.
Voting Rights
Voted for the SAVE America Act, which eliminates mail-in voting and requires a passport or multiple forms of ID to vote.
Will protect every eligible citizen's right to vote and make it easier — not harder — to have their voices heard.
Corruption
Supports the president's $1.776 billion slush fund to protect January 6 insurrectionists.
Believes that government corruption, in all its forms, needs to end immediately, rather than being openly exploited.
Foreign Influence
Allows AIPAC to control his vote for the war in Iran, raising prices at home and putting our children at risk in the Middle East.
Will not take money from AIPAC or other foreign influence peddlers, and will fight to stop the endless wars abroad, putting resources back into American communities.
More politics. More extremism. More of the same.
New leadership. Real solutions. A better future.
This is how we get to 51%
None of these factors deliver themselves. Every one of them depends on people showing up.